Wanyun Shao, Ph.D
  • Home
  • About
  • News
  • Bio
  • Research
  • Publications
  • Public Writing
  • Blog
  • Teaching
  • Contact
  • Links
  • Home
  • About
  • News
  • Bio
  • Research
  • Publications
  • Public Writing
  • Blog
  • Teaching
  • Contact
  • Links
Search by typing & pressing enter

YOUR CART

12/17/2016 1 Comment

Conservative Bayesian or natural stupidity?

It is a lot of fun to read Michael Lewis's new book on the collaboration and friendship between Danniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.

Kahneman is portrayed as an "outsider." Before he met Tversky, according to former colleagues and students, "he was very insecure," "he was moody in the extreme," and "he was like Woody Allen, without the humor." His deep-rooted skepticism even applies to himself. After completing the draft of his now best-seller "Thinking, fast and slow," he hired someone to read his work to convince him not to publish it.

Tversky, on the other hand, was an "insider." One of his long-time friends described, "people who knew Amos could talk of nothing else. There was nothing we liked to do more than to get together and talk about him, over and over and over." He was the center of attention in every party. People loved to be around him and listen to what he had to say.

Yet, these two strikingly different characters and similarly remarkable minds met and formed a friendship that has fundamentally transformed how we view our own minds. After Tversky gave his talk on the "conservative Bayesians" in Kahneman's seminar, Kahneman immediately casted doubt on this notion that we are naturally Bayesian thinkers who constantly update our own beliefs with new pieces of information coming in. Kahneman's reaction to Tversky's talk, "Brilliant talk, but I don't believe a word of it," really unsettled this otherwise confident, smartest person in any room. The two then set off on an intellectual journey to study "natural stupidity."

Now, we know our minds are subject to many biases and heuristics, or mental shortcuts. We hate losses more than we like gains.



1 Comment
Sinmoy
3/26/2021 10:42:21 pm

This is an interesting piece of trivia; a worthwhile glimpse into the lives of these two great thinkers.

Thanks for sharing!

Reply



Leave a Reply.

    Picture


    Wanyun Shao, Ph.D

    I am a geographer who studies risk decision making within a geographic context.

    Subscribe to Newsletter

    Categories

    All Climate Change Coastal Issues Community Resilience COVID 19 COVID-19 Drought Earthquake Energy Environmental Policy Flooding Geography GIS Hurricanes Natural Disaster Other Public Health Reading Risk Analysis Science Sea Level Rise Water Weather And Climate

    Archives

    February 2025
    December 2024
    September 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    January 2024
    November 2023
    August 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    August 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    April 2021
    February 2021
    December 2020
    October 2020
    July 2020
    December 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    June 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    August 2016

    View my profile on LinkedIn

    RSS Feed

Proudly powered by Weebly