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My major research interest is focused on the intersection of hazards, vulnerability, and risk decision making. Specific interests include: human dimension of climate change, risk perceptions, community resilience/vulnerability to hazards and disasters, social response to natural hazards, and public health. My research as been sponsored by the National Academies of Sciences Gulf Research Program (NASEM GRP), U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH), National Science Foundation (NSF), and the U.S. Department of Treasury and Alabama Center of Excellence.
On this page, I summarize my research to date and describe the major threads.
Theoretical Framework
I am continuously attempting to build a theoretical framework linking hazards, risks, and vulnerability in the spatiotemporal context (see Figure 1).
On this page, I summarize my research to date and describe the major threads.
Theoretical Framework
I am continuously attempting to build a theoretical framework linking hazards, risks, and vulnerability in the spatiotemporal context (see Figure 1).
Figure 1. Research Framework
Empirical Findings
In this section, I describe specific empirical findings from my previous publications.
Public Response to COVID-19
COVID-19 was the biggest public health crisis facing the U.S. in decades. In a presidential election year, it was unfortunately caught up in politics. From the early days of rapidly evolving situation, I and my coauthor studied how confidence in national political leaders could slant risk perceptions of COVID-19 (Shao and Hao 2020b). We later expanded to study public mask wearing behavior (Hao et al. 2021), general response (i.e., threat perception, behavioral adjustment, and policy support) (Hao and Shao 2021), and public support for COVID-19 mitigation measures (i.e., cancel gatherings, close businesses, close schools, require people who can work from home to work from home, restrict all non-essential travel, and test people for a fever before entering public buildings) (Shao and Hao 2021), and vaccine uptake (Hao and Shao, 2022). Confirming our hypotheses, personal political orientation as well as political control of the state government can greatly determine one's support for mitigation measures and general response to COVID-19 and vaccine uptake. In addition, contextual forces such as COVID-19 cases and death rate in one's home state can also play a critical role in determining public general response and mask wearing behaviors. Personal social capital and indirect experience with COVID-19 can motivate individuals to wear masks and support mitigation measures, respectively.
References
Hao, F. & Shao, W. 2020. Understanding the Influence of Political Orientation, Social Network, and Economic Recovery on COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake among Americans. Vaccine https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.02.066
Hao, F. & Shao, W. 2021. Understanding the Effects of Individual and State-level Factors on American Public Response to COVID–19. American Journal of Health Promotion doi:10.1177/08901171211017286
Hao, F., Shao, W., and Huang, W. 2021. Understanding the influence of contextual factors and individual social capital on American public mask wearing in response to COVID-19. Health and Place 68, 102537.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthplace.2021.102537.
Shao, W. & Hao, F. 2021. Understanding American public support for COVID-19 risk mitigation: The role of political orientation, socio-demographic characteristics, personal concern, and experience. International Journal of Public Health https://doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2021.1604037
Shao, W. & Hao, F. 2020 b. Confidence in political leaders can slant risk perceptions of COVID-19 in a highly polarized environment. Social Science & Medicine 261,113235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113235.
COVID-19 was the biggest public health crisis facing the U.S. in decades. In a presidential election year, it was unfortunately caught up in politics. From the early days of rapidly evolving situation, I and my coauthor studied how confidence in national political leaders could slant risk perceptions of COVID-19 (Shao and Hao 2020b). We later expanded to study public mask wearing behavior (Hao et al. 2021), general response (i.e., threat perception, behavioral adjustment, and policy support) (Hao and Shao 2021), and public support for COVID-19 mitigation measures (i.e., cancel gatherings, close businesses, close schools, require people who can work from home to work from home, restrict all non-essential travel, and test people for a fever before entering public buildings) (Shao and Hao 2021), and vaccine uptake (Hao and Shao, 2022). Confirming our hypotheses, personal political orientation as well as political control of the state government can greatly determine one's support for mitigation measures and general response to COVID-19 and vaccine uptake. In addition, contextual forces such as COVID-19 cases and death rate in one's home state can also play a critical role in determining public general response and mask wearing behaviors. Personal social capital and indirect experience with COVID-19 can motivate individuals to wear masks and support mitigation measures, respectively.
References
Hao, F. & Shao, W. 2020. Understanding the Influence of Political Orientation, Social Network, and Economic Recovery on COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake among Americans. Vaccine https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.02.066
Hao, F. & Shao, W. 2021. Understanding the Effects of Individual and State-level Factors on American Public Response to COVID–19. American Journal of Health Promotion doi:10.1177/08901171211017286
Hao, F., Shao, W., and Huang, W. 2021. Understanding the influence of contextual factors and individual social capital on American public mask wearing in response to COVID-19. Health and Place 68, 102537.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthplace.2021.102537.
Shao, W. & Hao, F. 2021. Understanding American public support for COVID-19 risk mitigation: The role of political orientation, socio-demographic characteristics, personal concern, and experience. International Journal of Public Health https://doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2021.1604037
Shao, W. & Hao, F. 2020 b. Confidence in political leaders can slant risk perceptions of COVID-19 in a highly polarized environment. Social Science & Medicine 261,113235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113235.
Public Perceptions of Global Climate Change
The discrepancy of the scientific consensus and the divided American public opinion toward global warming has generated a great amount of research interests. The variation of public perceptions of global warming/climate change has been attributed to socio-demographic characteristics, political predisposition, personal experience, and the geographic context.
According to my own research, in addition to the powerful role played by the political predisposition (Shao and Hao 2020a), the objective geographic context represented by the decadal summer temperature trend is consistently found to have significant impact on risk perceptions of global warming. Specifically, individuals who reside in communities that have witnessed rising summer temperatures are more likely than to perceive anthropogenic global warming (Shao et al. 2016), and view global warming as an immediate and serious problem (Shao et al. 2014).
Moreover, my research demonstrates that temperature trends in two consecutive seasons can have opposite effects on perceptions of global warming. Specifically, individuals residing in places experiencing a downward spring temperature trend coupled with a warming winter temperature trend are more likely to believe that the world's temperature has been going up (Shao 2017). Similarly, individuals who reside in communities with long-term warming of summer temperatures that are coupled with long-term cooling of spring temperatures are significantly more likely to perceive that global warming exists and is due to human activity (Shao et al. 2016). The opposite effects of the two consecutive seasons might be due to the possibility that individuals’ perceptions of temperature can be sensitive to temperatures that display greater disparity from one season to the next.
I have also examined the relationship between religion and religiosity on the one hand, and American mass attitudes towards global warming. I find that evangelical fundamentalism is the most consistent factor among all religion-related variables in determining perceptions of global warming, those more oriented toward evangelical fundamentalism being less likely than others to believe in the existence, anthropogenic cause, and adverse impact of global warming (Shao 2017; Shao and McCathy 2020). In the paper (Shao 2017), support for the Tea Party plays a dominant role in determining views of global warming; support for the Tea Party leading to higher likelihood of disbelief in the existence, anthropogenic cause, and negative impact of global warming, even controlling for the effects of traditional political predisposition variables, including party identification and political ideology.
References
Shao, W. & Hao, F. 2020 a. Approval of political leaders can slant evaluation of political issues: evidence from public concern for climate change in the U.S. Climatic Change 158(2), 201-212,10.1007/s10584-019-02594-4
Shao, W. & McCarthy, A. 2020. Understanding Evangelical Protestant identity, religiosity, extreme weather, and American public perceptions of global warming, 2006-2016. Geographic Review DOI: 10.1080/00167428.2019.1702427
Shao, W. 2017. Weather, climate, politics or God? – determinants of American public opinions toward global warming. Environmental Politics DOI: 10.1080/09644016.2016.1223190
Shao, W., Garand, J.C., Keim, B. D., and Hamilton, L.C. 2016. Science, scientists, and local weather: understanding mass attitudes toward global warming. Social Science Quarterly. DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12317
Shao, W., Keim, B. D., Garand, J.C., and Hamilton, L.C., 2014. Weather, climate, and the economy: explaining risk perceptions of global warming, 2001-2010. Weather, Climate, and Society 6, 119-134.
The discrepancy of the scientific consensus and the divided American public opinion toward global warming has generated a great amount of research interests. The variation of public perceptions of global warming/climate change has been attributed to socio-demographic characteristics, political predisposition, personal experience, and the geographic context.
According to my own research, in addition to the powerful role played by the political predisposition (Shao and Hao 2020a), the objective geographic context represented by the decadal summer temperature trend is consistently found to have significant impact on risk perceptions of global warming. Specifically, individuals who reside in communities that have witnessed rising summer temperatures are more likely than to perceive anthropogenic global warming (Shao et al. 2016), and view global warming as an immediate and serious problem (Shao et al. 2014).
Moreover, my research demonstrates that temperature trends in two consecutive seasons can have opposite effects on perceptions of global warming. Specifically, individuals residing in places experiencing a downward spring temperature trend coupled with a warming winter temperature trend are more likely to believe that the world's temperature has been going up (Shao 2017). Similarly, individuals who reside in communities with long-term warming of summer temperatures that are coupled with long-term cooling of spring temperatures are significantly more likely to perceive that global warming exists and is due to human activity (Shao et al. 2016). The opposite effects of the two consecutive seasons might be due to the possibility that individuals’ perceptions of temperature can be sensitive to temperatures that display greater disparity from one season to the next.
I have also examined the relationship between religion and religiosity on the one hand, and American mass attitudes towards global warming. I find that evangelical fundamentalism is the most consistent factor among all religion-related variables in determining perceptions of global warming, those more oriented toward evangelical fundamentalism being less likely than others to believe in the existence, anthropogenic cause, and adverse impact of global warming (Shao 2017; Shao and McCathy 2020). In the paper (Shao 2017), support for the Tea Party plays a dominant role in determining views of global warming; support for the Tea Party leading to higher likelihood of disbelief in the existence, anthropogenic cause, and negative impact of global warming, even controlling for the effects of traditional political predisposition variables, including party identification and political ideology.
References
Shao, W. & Hao, F. 2020 a. Approval of political leaders can slant evaluation of political issues: evidence from public concern for climate change in the U.S. Climatic Change 158(2), 201-212,10.1007/s10584-019-02594-4
Shao, W. & McCarthy, A. 2020. Understanding Evangelical Protestant identity, religiosity, extreme weather, and American public perceptions of global warming, 2006-2016. Geographic Review DOI: 10.1080/00167428.2019.1702427
Shao, W. 2017. Weather, climate, politics or God? – determinants of American public opinions toward global warming. Environmental Politics DOI: 10.1080/09644016.2016.1223190
Shao, W., Garand, J.C., Keim, B. D., and Hamilton, L.C. 2016. Science, scientists, and local weather: understanding mass attitudes toward global warming. Social Science Quarterly. DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12317
Shao, W., Keim, B. D., Garand, J.C., and Hamilton, L.C., 2014. Weather, climate, and the economy: explaining risk perceptions of global warming, 2001-2010. Weather, Climate, and Society 6, 119-134.
Public Perceptions of Local Weather
Because the manifestation of climate change varies from place to place, it is also of interest and importance to examine perceptions of local weather. My research shows that the perceived weather does not necessarily matches with the objective weather. In fact, objective conditions have limited explanatory power in determining perceptions of local climate patterns.
Among all objective weather indicators, only a few of them are found to be significantly correlated with corresponding perceived weather patterns. Specifically, individuals who have experienced more extreme weather events in their home counties are more likely than those elsewhere to perceive the weather is stranger than usual (Shao 2016). 15- and 19-year trends of hurricane numbers and decadal summer temperature trend have some effects on perceptions of these weather conditions (Shao and Goidel 2016).
The scientific debate on the link between climate change and increasing tropical cyclone activities in the Northern Atlantic Ocean continues. Regardless of the cause, the impact of increasing hurricane intensity is immense on coastal communities. My research demonstrates that the characteristics of hurricane strength associated with the most recent landfall are much more closely associated with perceptions of changing hurricane strength than objectively measured trends (Shao et al. 2017 a). In addition to the effect of the most recent landfall, we also find that people’s belief in climate change play a powerful role in one’s perception of changing hurricane strength. Political predispositions once again are found to affect one’s perceptions of changing hurricane strength.
References
Shao, W., Xian, S., Keim, B. D., Goidel, K., and Lin, N. 2017 a “Understanding perceptions of changing hurricane strength along the U.S. Gulf Coast” International Journal of Climatology DOI:10.1002/joc.4805
Shao, W., 2016, “Are actual weather and perceived weather the same?” Journal of Risk Research 1-21.
Shao, W. & Goidel, K. 2016 “Seeing is believing? - An examination of perceptions of local weather conditions and climate change among residents in the U.S. Gulf Coast” Risk Analysis DOI:10.1111/risa.12571
Because the manifestation of climate change varies from place to place, it is also of interest and importance to examine perceptions of local weather. My research shows that the perceived weather does not necessarily matches with the objective weather. In fact, objective conditions have limited explanatory power in determining perceptions of local climate patterns.
Among all objective weather indicators, only a few of them are found to be significantly correlated with corresponding perceived weather patterns. Specifically, individuals who have experienced more extreme weather events in their home counties are more likely than those elsewhere to perceive the weather is stranger than usual (Shao 2016). 15- and 19-year trends of hurricane numbers and decadal summer temperature trend have some effects on perceptions of these weather conditions (Shao and Goidel 2016).
The scientific debate on the link between climate change and increasing tropical cyclone activities in the Northern Atlantic Ocean continues. Regardless of the cause, the impact of increasing hurricane intensity is immense on coastal communities. My research demonstrates that the characteristics of hurricane strength associated with the most recent landfall are much more closely associated with perceptions of changing hurricane strength than objectively measured trends (Shao et al. 2017 a). In addition to the effect of the most recent landfall, we also find that people’s belief in climate change play a powerful role in one’s perception of changing hurricane strength. Political predispositions once again are found to affect one’s perceptions of changing hurricane strength.
References
Shao, W., Xian, S., Keim, B. D., Goidel, K., and Lin, N. 2017 a “Understanding perceptions of changing hurricane strength along the U.S. Gulf Coast” International Journal of Climatology DOI:10.1002/joc.4805
Shao, W., 2016, “Are actual weather and perceived weather the same?” Journal of Risk Research 1-21.
Shao, W. & Goidel, K. 2016 “Seeing is believing? - An examination of perceptions of local weather conditions and climate change among residents in the U.S. Gulf Coast” Risk Analysis DOI:10.1111/risa.12571
Interactions between Perceptions of Global Climate Change and Local Weather
Previous research has shown that perception of climate change and perceptions of local weather are intertwined. According to my own research, beliefs about global warming are found to play a dominant role in determining the perception of local weather. Specifically, people who view that global warming is causing an immediate impact, is serious, and needs to be a priority are much more likely to perceive a strange pattern of weather in the recent past (Shao 2016). Similarly, people's belief in climate change also play a powerful role in one's perception of changing hurricane strength (Shao et al. 2017 a). These findings conform to motivated reasoning which refers to the tendency to interpret evidence to confirm the preexisting beliefs and predisposition.
On the other hand, perceptions of local weather are found to be powerful factors in shaping individuals' perceptions of climate change. Compared to actual weather indicators, perceived weather measures exert stronger explanatory power in the variation of perceptions of climate change. For instance, people who perceive the strange weather patterns are much more likely than others to see the immediate impacts and priority of global warming (Shao 2016).
References
Shao, W., Xian, S., Keim, B. D., Goidel, K., and Lin, N. 2017 a. Understanding perceptions of changing hurricane strength along the U.S. Gulf Coast. International Journal of Climatology DOI:10.1002/joc.4805
Shao, W., 2016. Are actual weather and perceived weather the same? Journal of Risk Research 1-21.
Local Adaptation to Global Environmental Change
Regardless of the cause of climate change, societies have to adapt to the impacts. My first endeavor in this field is to understand determinants of voluntary flood insurance purchase behaviors. Flooding can incur immense amount of damages. One precautionary means to mitigate the adverse impact of flooding is to purchase flood insurance. Only a portion of coastal residents who live in the imminent threats posed by floods have flood insurance. My co-authors and I have made several important findings on what drive individuals to voluntarily purchase flood insurance, by utilizing Gulf Coast Climate Change survey merged with contextual data. We find that flood risks conveyed in FEMA flood maps, perceptions of flood-related risks, intensity of the local flood events in the recent past, and social factors represented by education and income play significant roles affects one's voluntary purchase of flood insurance (Shao et al. 2017b).
In addition, we have investigated into the relationships among contextual flooding risks, perceptions of flood-related risks, and long-term flood hazard adjustment policy support. We have found that the contextual flooding risks impact policy support through perceptions of flood-related risks. Perceived risks serve as a mediator bridging contextual risks and policy support to address such risks (Shao et al. 2017c)
References
Shao, W., Xian, S., Lin, N., and Small, M. 2017 c. A sequential model relating risk exposure, perception and public support for coastal flood adaptation measures. Water Research DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2017.05.072
Shao, W., Xian, S., Lin, N., Kunreuther, H., Jackson, N., and Goidel, K. 2017 b. Understanding the effects of past flood events, perceived and estimated flood risks on individuals' voluntary flood insurance purchase behaviors. Water Research DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2016.11.021
Hazards, Vulnerability, Risk, Resilience, and Perceptions
Geographic information system (GIS) has been widely used to map out community vulnerability to a variety of natural hazards. In one study (Shao et al. 2020), we use bivariate mapping to display social vulnerability to hurricanes and floods across the U.S. Gulf Coast. We also analyze the changes of social vulnerability and connect such changes with the changes of land use and land cover (LULC) in Mobile Bay, AL (Dey et al., 2024a). Recently, my research group uses machine learning (ML) to assess flood susceptibility in New Orleans, LA (Dey et al., 2024b), flood risk in Harris County, TX (Dey et al., 2024c) and in Tampa Bay, FL (Dey et al., 2024d).
Many scholar have attempted to define and measure community resilience. Cutter et al. (2008) defined community resilience as “continual learning and taking responsibility for making better decisions to improve the capacity to handle hazards.” The definition given by Cutter et al. (2008) implies that cognitive components such as “learning” and “decisions” should be integrated into resilience. “Continual learning” requires one to constantly seek accurate information from the external sources. “Better decisions” need to incorporate and reflect the accurate information. Between seeking external information and reflecting information lies perception. Most existing community resilience indexes though are derived from objective data.
In one study (Shao et al. 2018), we contend that risk perceptions should be integrated into a comprehensive community resilience index. Before fully incorporating cognitive components into community resilience, there is a need to examine the relationship between each constituent of community resilience and community-level risk perceptions. In order to guide appropriate incorporation of risk perceptions into the construction of community resilience, it is of interest to reveal which dimensions of community resilience is/are more correlated with risk perception than others. We find that economic resilience and community capital, two of the six community resilience dimensions measured by Cutter et al. (2014) are positively related to perceptions of hurricane-related risks.
References
Cutter, S. L., K. D. Ash, and C. T. Emrich. 2014. The geographies of community disaster resilience. Global Environmental Change, 29, 65-77.
Cutter, S. L., L. Barnes, M. Berry, C. Burton, E. Evans, E. Tate & J. Webb. 2008. A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters. Global Environmental Change 18: 598-606.
Dey, H., Shao, W., Pan, S., & Tian, H. (2024a). The spatiotemporal patterns of community vulnerability in the U.S. Mobile Bay from 2000 - 2020. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-023-09549-4
Dey, H., Shao, W., Moradkhani, H., Keim, B., & Peter, B (2024b). Urban flood susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio and machine learning algorithms. Natural Hazards https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06609-x
Dey, H., Shao, W., Haque, M., & VanDyke, M. (2024c) Enhancing Flood Risk Analysis in Harris County: Integrating Flood Susceptibility and Social Vulnerability Mapping. Journal of Geovisualization and Spatial Analysis DOI : 10.1007/s41651-024-00181-5.
Dey, H., Haque, M., Shao, W., VanDyke, M., & Hao, F. (2024) “Simulating flood risk in Tampa Bay using a machine learning driven approach” npj: Natural Hazards 1, 40. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00045-4
Shao, W., Gardezi, M., and Xian, S. 2018. Examining the effects of objective hurricane risks and community resilience on risk perceptions of hurricanes at the county level in the U.S. Gulf Coast: An innovative approach. Annals of the American Association of Geographers DOI: 10.1080/24694452.2018.1426436
Shao, W., Jackson, N.P., Ha, H., & Winemiller, T. 2020. Assessing community vulnerability to floods and hurricanes along the Gulf Coast of the United States. Disasters 44 (3), 518-547.
Perceptions of Hazards: Flood, Drought, Sea Level Rise, Coastal Hazards, and Earthquake
In two studies (Shao et al. 2019; Shao et al. 2022), two cities in Alabama were used as two contrasting geographic contexts within which understanding perceptions of flood and drought hazards was situated. The common major finding of the studies is that people are attuned to their physical environments and take into consideration their personal observations when forming perceptions of natural hazards. In addition, public awareness of hazards (e.g., drought) is constrained within the immediate hazard impact area. Governmental declaration can raise public awareness outside the impact area (Shao et al. 2022).
Flood and drought are two hazards with distinctive characteristics. The different characteristics of these two hazards lead to different public response to them. Public attention to flood increases and decays fast with the occurrence of the hazard, while public attention to drought increases and decays gradually, corresponding to the onsets of either hazard respectively (Shao and Kam 2020). While, higher drought frequencies increase perceptions of increasing drought number, higher flood frequencies decrease perceptions of increasing flood number (Shao and Kam 2020).
Sea level rise (SLR) in the twenty-first century poses fundamental risks to coastal residents. In a paper (Shao et al. 2020), we find that public risk perceptions of sea level change are influenced by political predisposition. Republicans are less likely than Democrats to expect SLR in the future. SLR remains a temporally distant issue among coastal residents. Coastal residents in states that have experienced faster SLR in the past are more optimistic about future SLR by underestimating its magnitude compared to those experiencing slower SLR.
Coastal cities are under increasing stress posed by climate change. To effectively manage coastal disasters, the coordination between the local government and residents is needed. In a study (Cass et al., 2022), we propose a comprehensive framework and apply it to understand the gaps between public expectations and local planning to mitigate coastal hazards in New Orleans. We also attempt to understand how to effectively communicate coastal hazard risks with residents in three coastal cities, Mobile, AL, Houston, TX, and Savannah, GA (Cass et al., 2023).
People with disabilities (PWD) are faced with enormous challenges during a disaster. Movement challenged persons (MCP) are especially in great need during an earthquake, when rapid movement through space is required for evacuation. In one study (Bhuiya and Shao), we find risk perceptions of earthquakes among MCPs are significantly related to level of disability, age, income, and building structure.
References
Bhuiya, MMR. & Shao, W. 2022. Perceptions of earthquake risks and knowledge about earthquake response among movement challenged persons in Dhaka city of Bangladesh. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 70 (102743)
Cass, E., Shao, W., & Smiley, K. 2022. "Comparing Public Expectations with Local Planning Efforts to Mitigate Coastal Hazards: A Case Study in the City of New Orleans, USA" International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102940
Cass, E., Shao, W., Hao, F., Moradkhani, H., & Yeates, E. (2023). Identifying trends in interpretation and responses to hurricane and climate change communication tools. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103752
Shao, W., Kam, J., & Cass, E. 2022 "Public awareness and perceptions of drought: A case study of two cities of Alabama." Risk, Hazards, & Crisis in Public Policy https://doi.org/10.1002/rhc3.12248
Shao, W. & Kam, J. 2020. Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations of Drought and Flood. Science of the Total Environment 141155, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141155.
Shao, W., Keim, B., Xian, S., and O'Connor, R. 2019. Flood Hazards and Perceptions – A Comparative Study of Two Cities in Alabama. Journal of Hydrology, 569, 546-555.
Shao, W., Moftakhari, H., and Moradkhani, H. 2020. Comparing public perceptions of sea level rise with scientific projections across five states of the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Climatic Change DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02893-1
Geographic information system (GIS) has been widely used to map out community vulnerability to a variety of natural hazards. In one study (Shao et al. 2020), we use bivariate mapping to display social vulnerability to hurricanes and floods across the U.S. Gulf Coast. We also analyze the changes of social vulnerability and connect such changes with the changes of land use and land cover (LULC) in Mobile Bay, AL (Dey et al., 2024a). Recently, my research group uses machine learning (ML) to assess flood susceptibility in New Orleans, LA (Dey et al., 2024b), flood risk in Harris County, TX (Dey et al., 2024c) and in Tampa Bay, FL (Dey et al., 2024d).
Many scholar have attempted to define and measure community resilience. Cutter et al. (2008) defined community resilience as “continual learning and taking responsibility for making better decisions to improve the capacity to handle hazards.” The definition given by Cutter et al. (2008) implies that cognitive components such as “learning” and “decisions” should be integrated into resilience. “Continual learning” requires one to constantly seek accurate information from the external sources. “Better decisions” need to incorporate and reflect the accurate information. Between seeking external information and reflecting information lies perception. Most existing community resilience indexes though are derived from objective data.
In one study (Shao et al. 2018), we contend that risk perceptions should be integrated into a comprehensive community resilience index. Before fully incorporating cognitive components into community resilience, there is a need to examine the relationship between each constituent of community resilience and community-level risk perceptions. In order to guide appropriate incorporation of risk perceptions into the construction of community resilience, it is of interest to reveal which dimensions of community resilience is/are more correlated with risk perception than others. We find that economic resilience and community capital, two of the six community resilience dimensions measured by Cutter et al. (2014) are positively related to perceptions of hurricane-related risks.
References
Cutter, S. L., K. D. Ash, and C. T. Emrich. 2014. The geographies of community disaster resilience. Global Environmental Change, 29, 65-77.
Cutter, S. L., L. Barnes, M. Berry, C. Burton, E. Evans, E. Tate & J. Webb. 2008. A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters. Global Environmental Change 18: 598-606.
Dey, H., Shao, W., Pan, S., & Tian, H. (2024a). The spatiotemporal patterns of community vulnerability in the U.S. Mobile Bay from 2000 - 2020. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-023-09549-4
Dey, H., Shao, W., Moradkhani, H., Keim, B., & Peter, B (2024b). Urban flood susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio and machine learning algorithms. Natural Hazards https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06609-x
Dey, H., Shao, W., Haque, M., & VanDyke, M. (2024c) Enhancing Flood Risk Analysis in Harris County: Integrating Flood Susceptibility and Social Vulnerability Mapping. Journal of Geovisualization and Spatial Analysis DOI : 10.1007/s41651-024-00181-5.
Dey, H., Haque, M., Shao, W., VanDyke, M., & Hao, F. (2024) “Simulating flood risk in Tampa Bay using a machine learning driven approach” npj: Natural Hazards 1, 40. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00045-4
Shao, W., Gardezi, M., and Xian, S. 2018. Examining the effects of objective hurricane risks and community resilience on risk perceptions of hurricanes at the county level in the U.S. Gulf Coast: An innovative approach. Annals of the American Association of Geographers DOI: 10.1080/24694452.2018.1426436
Shao, W., Jackson, N.P., Ha, H., & Winemiller, T. 2020. Assessing community vulnerability to floods and hurricanes along the Gulf Coast of the United States. Disasters 44 (3), 518-547.
Perceptions of Hazards: Flood, Drought, Sea Level Rise, Coastal Hazards, and Earthquake
In two studies (Shao et al. 2019; Shao et al. 2022), two cities in Alabama were used as two contrasting geographic contexts within which understanding perceptions of flood and drought hazards was situated. The common major finding of the studies is that people are attuned to their physical environments and take into consideration their personal observations when forming perceptions of natural hazards. In addition, public awareness of hazards (e.g., drought) is constrained within the immediate hazard impact area. Governmental declaration can raise public awareness outside the impact area (Shao et al. 2022).
Flood and drought are two hazards with distinctive characteristics. The different characteristics of these two hazards lead to different public response to them. Public attention to flood increases and decays fast with the occurrence of the hazard, while public attention to drought increases and decays gradually, corresponding to the onsets of either hazard respectively (Shao and Kam 2020). While, higher drought frequencies increase perceptions of increasing drought number, higher flood frequencies decrease perceptions of increasing flood number (Shao and Kam 2020).
Sea level rise (SLR) in the twenty-first century poses fundamental risks to coastal residents. In a paper (Shao et al. 2020), we find that public risk perceptions of sea level change are influenced by political predisposition. Republicans are less likely than Democrats to expect SLR in the future. SLR remains a temporally distant issue among coastal residents. Coastal residents in states that have experienced faster SLR in the past are more optimistic about future SLR by underestimating its magnitude compared to those experiencing slower SLR.
Coastal cities are under increasing stress posed by climate change. To effectively manage coastal disasters, the coordination between the local government and residents is needed. In a study (Cass et al., 2022), we propose a comprehensive framework and apply it to understand the gaps between public expectations and local planning to mitigate coastal hazards in New Orleans. We also attempt to understand how to effectively communicate coastal hazard risks with residents in three coastal cities, Mobile, AL, Houston, TX, and Savannah, GA (Cass et al., 2023).
People with disabilities (PWD) are faced with enormous challenges during a disaster. Movement challenged persons (MCP) are especially in great need during an earthquake, when rapid movement through space is required for evacuation. In one study (Bhuiya and Shao), we find risk perceptions of earthquakes among MCPs are significantly related to level of disability, age, income, and building structure.
References
Bhuiya, MMR. & Shao, W. 2022. Perceptions of earthquake risks and knowledge about earthquake response among movement challenged persons in Dhaka city of Bangladesh. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 70 (102743)
Cass, E., Shao, W., & Smiley, K. 2022. "Comparing Public Expectations with Local Planning Efforts to Mitigate Coastal Hazards: A Case Study in the City of New Orleans, USA" International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102940
Cass, E., Shao, W., Hao, F., Moradkhani, H., & Yeates, E. (2023). Identifying trends in interpretation and responses to hurricane and climate change communication tools. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103752
Shao, W., Kam, J., & Cass, E. 2022 "Public awareness and perceptions of drought: A case study of two cities of Alabama." Risk, Hazards, & Crisis in Public Policy https://doi.org/10.1002/rhc3.12248
Shao, W. & Kam, J. 2020. Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations of Drought and Flood. Science of the Total Environment 141155, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141155.
Shao, W., Keim, B., Xian, S., and O'Connor, R. 2019. Flood Hazards and Perceptions – A Comparative Study of Two Cities in Alabama. Journal of Hydrology, 569, 546-555.
Shao, W., Moftakhari, H., and Moradkhani, H. 2020. Comparing public perceptions of sea level rise with scientific projections across five states of the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Climatic Change DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02893-1