My major research interest is focused on the human-environment interactions at various geographic scales. My research is primarily empirical and quantitative. I attempt to distill seemingly fragmented empirical findings into a coherent theoretical framework. My research to date can be characterized as: understanding environmental decision making in a geographic context. Specific interests include: human dimension of climate change, environmental risk perceptions, environmental policies/planning, community resilience to environmental hazards, social response to hydrological hazards, and environmental hazards and public health. On this page, I summarize my research to date and describe the major threads of my research.
Theoretical Perspectives
I am continuously attempting to build a theoretical framework linking geographic context and temporal scale with perceptions of hazards and risks and risk reduction behaviors based on empirical evidence. In this section, I list four studies as examples. In a paper that will be published in Science of the Total Environment, we combine a Gulf Coast survey data with Standard Precipitation Index to examine how historical trends of flood and drought influence retrospective evaluations of these two hazards and how retrospective evaluations influence prospective evaluations of the future trends of these hazards. We propose a theoretical framework (Figure 1).
Given that the manifestation of global environmental change varies geographically, effective adaptive strategies should be tailored to suit local conditions. In a paper published on Water Research, we have estimated a series of sequential models to explore how the contextual risks affect support for flood adaptation policies among Gulf Coast residents. We have found that the relationship between contextual flooding risks and long-term flood adjustment policy support was not straightforward. Rather, the contextual flooding risks impact support for policy measures through perceptions of flood-related risks. Based on this finding, we propose a theoretical framework (Figure 2). To further validate this theoretical framework, more empirical studies focusing on adaptation policies for various environmental risks (e.g., drought, sea level rise, coastal erosion, tornado, and heat wave), and different geographic areas (other regions of the U.S. or other countries) need to be conducted.
I am also conducting research to converge these two streams of research: environmental risk perceptions and community resilience to environmental hazards. The relationship between these two is far from being static and one-directional. In a study published on Annals of the American Association of Geographers, we propose a framework (see Figure 3) to integrate perceptions into the construction of a more comprehensive community resilience index.
Flooding has incurred a great amount of economic damages. Recent Hurricane Harvey (2017) and Hurricane Florence (2018) demonstrated how much flooding hurricanes can generate to the coastal communities. Given flooding's immense impacts on the society, it is of significance to study how individuals make decisions to mitigate flooding risks. In one study (in Environmental Research Letters) based on a comprehensive survey, we have proposed a decision-making mechanism (see Figure 4). The primary determinant on individuals' overall flood mitigation support is informed risk, namely FEMA's flood maps. The secondary determinant is sense of insecurity. The implication is that risk signals can be delivered to homeowners through various means such as premiums and living in the Special Flood Hazard Zones. More empirical studies are obviously needed to validate this decision-making mechanism.
Figure 1. Spatiotemporal Framework of Hazards and Perceptions (Shao and Kam, in press)
Figure 2. Contextual Risks, Risk Perceptions, and Adaptation Policy Support (Shao et al. 2017)
Figure 3. Contextual Risks, Risk Perceptions, and Community Resilience (Shao et al. 2018)
Figure 4. Flood Mitigation Decision-Making Mechanism (Shao et al., 2019)
Empirical Findings
In this section, I describe specific empirical findings from my previous publications.
Public Perceptions of Global Climate Change
The discrepancy of scientific consensus and divided American public opinion toward global warming has generated a great amount of research interests. The variation of public perceptions of global warming/climate change has been attributed to socio-demographic characteristics, political predisposition, personal experience, and the geographic context.
According to my own research, in addition to the powerful role played by the political predisposition, the objective geographic context represented by the decadal summer temperature trend is consistently found to have significant impact on risk perceptions of global warming. Specifically, individuals who reside in communities that have witnessed rising summer temperatures are more likely than to perceive anthropogenic global warming, and view global warming as an immediate and serious problem.
Moreover, my research demonstrates that temperature trends in two consecutive seasons can have opposite effects on perceptions of global warming. Specifically, individuals residing in places experiencing a downward spring temperature trend coupled with a warming winter temperature trend are more likely to believe that the world's temperature has been going up. Similarly, individuals who reside in communities with long-term warming of summer temperatures that are coupled with long-term cooling of spring temperatures are significantly more likely to perceive that global warming exists and is due to human activity. The opposite effects of the two consecutive seasons might be due to the possibility that individuals’ perceptions of temperature can be sensitive to temperatures that display greater disparity from one season to the next.
I have also examined the relationship between religion and religiosity on the one hand, and American mass attitudes towards global warming. I find that evangelical fundamentalism is the most consistent factor among all religion-related variables in determining perceptions of global warming, those more oriented toward evangelical fundamentalism being less likely than others to believe in the existence, anthropogenic cause, and adverse impact of global warming. In the same paper, support for the Tea Party plays a dominant role in determining views of global warming; support for the Tea Party leading to higher likelihood of disbelief in the existence, anthropogenic cause, and negative impact of global warming, even controlling for the effects of traditional political predisposition variables, including party identification and political ideology.
The discrepancy of scientific consensus and divided American public opinion toward global warming has generated a great amount of research interests. The variation of public perceptions of global warming/climate change has been attributed to socio-demographic characteristics, political predisposition, personal experience, and the geographic context.
According to my own research, in addition to the powerful role played by the political predisposition, the objective geographic context represented by the decadal summer temperature trend is consistently found to have significant impact on risk perceptions of global warming. Specifically, individuals who reside in communities that have witnessed rising summer temperatures are more likely than to perceive anthropogenic global warming, and view global warming as an immediate and serious problem.
Moreover, my research demonstrates that temperature trends in two consecutive seasons can have opposite effects on perceptions of global warming. Specifically, individuals residing in places experiencing a downward spring temperature trend coupled with a warming winter temperature trend are more likely to believe that the world's temperature has been going up. Similarly, individuals who reside in communities with long-term warming of summer temperatures that are coupled with long-term cooling of spring temperatures are significantly more likely to perceive that global warming exists and is due to human activity. The opposite effects of the two consecutive seasons might be due to the possibility that individuals’ perceptions of temperature can be sensitive to temperatures that display greater disparity from one season to the next.
I have also examined the relationship between religion and religiosity on the one hand, and American mass attitudes towards global warming. I find that evangelical fundamentalism is the most consistent factor among all religion-related variables in determining perceptions of global warming, those more oriented toward evangelical fundamentalism being less likely than others to believe in the existence, anthropogenic cause, and adverse impact of global warming. In the same paper, support for the Tea Party plays a dominant role in determining views of global warming; support for the Tea Party leading to higher likelihood of disbelief in the existence, anthropogenic cause, and negative impact of global warming, even controlling for the effects of traditional political predisposition variables, including party identification and political ideology.
Source: https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/
Public Perceptions of Local Weather
Because the manifestation of climate change varies from place to place, it is also of interest and importance to examine perceptions of local weather. My research shows that the perceived weather does not necessarily matches with the objective weather. In fact, objective conditions have limited explanatory power in determining perceptions of local climate patterns.
Among all objective weather indicators, only a few of them are found to be significantly correlated with corresponding perceived weather patterns. Specifically, individuals who have experienced more extreme weather events in their home counties are more likely than those elsewhere to perceive the weather is stranger than usual. 15- and 19-year trends of hurricane numbers and decadal summer temperature trend have some effects on perceptions of these weather conditions.
The scientific debate on the link between climate change and increasing tropical cyclone activities in the Northern Atlantic Ocean continues. Regardless of the cause, the impact of increasing hurricane intensity is immense on coastal communities. My research demonstrates that the characteristics of hurricane strength associated with the most recent landfall are much more closely associated with perceptions of changing hurricane strength than objectively measured trends. In addition to the effect of the most recent landfall, we also find that people’s belief in climate change play a powerful role in one’s perception of changing hurricane strength. Political predispositions once again are found to affect one’s perceptions of changing hurricane strength.
Because the manifestation of climate change varies from place to place, it is also of interest and importance to examine perceptions of local weather. My research shows that the perceived weather does not necessarily matches with the objective weather. In fact, objective conditions have limited explanatory power in determining perceptions of local climate patterns.
Among all objective weather indicators, only a few of them are found to be significantly correlated with corresponding perceived weather patterns. Specifically, individuals who have experienced more extreme weather events in their home counties are more likely than those elsewhere to perceive the weather is stranger than usual. 15- and 19-year trends of hurricane numbers and decadal summer temperature trend have some effects on perceptions of these weather conditions.
The scientific debate on the link between climate change and increasing tropical cyclone activities in the Northern Atlantic Ocean continues. Regardless of the cause, the impact of increasing hurricane intensity is immense on coastal communities. My research demonstrates that the characteristics of hurricane strength associated with the most recent landfall are much more closely associated with perceptions of changing hurricane strength than objectively measured trends. In addition to the effect of the most recent landfall, we also find that people’s belief in climate change play a powerful role in one’s perception of changing hurricane strength. Political predispositions once again are found to affect one’s perceptions of changing hurricane strength.
Source: https://climate.nasa.gov/solutions/adaptation-mitigation/
Interactions between Perceptions of Global Climate Change and Local Weather
Previous research has shown that perception of climate change and perceptions of local weather are intertwined. According to my own research, beliefs about global warming are found to play a dominant role in determining the perception of local weather. Specifically, people who view that global warming is causing an immediate impact, is serious, and needs to be a priority are much more likely to perceive a strange pattern of weather in the recent past. Similarly, people's belief in climate change also play a powerful role in one's perception of changing hurricane strength. These findings conform to motivated reasoning which refers to the tendency to interpret evidence to confirm the preexisting beliefs and predisposition.
On the other hand, perceptions of local weather are found to be powerful factors in shaping individuals' perceptions of climate change. Compared to actual weather indicators, perceived weather measures exert stronger explanatory power in the variation of perceptions of climate change. For instance, people who perceive the strange weather patterns are much more likely than others to see the immediate impacts and priority of global warming.
Local Adaptation to Global Environmental Change
Regardless of the cause of climate change, societies have to adapt to the impacts. My first endeavor in this field is to understand determinants of voluntary flood insurance purchase behaviors. Flooding can incur immense amount of damages. One precautionary means to mitigate the adverse impact of flooding is to purchase flood insurance. Only a portion of coastal residents who live in the imminent threats posed by floods have flood insurance. My co-authors and I have made several important findings on what drive individuals to voluntarily purchase flood insurance, by utilizing Gulf Coast Climate Change survey merged with contextual data. We find that flood risks conveyed in FEMA flood maps, perceptions of flood-related risks, intensity of the local flood events in the recent past, and social factors represented by education and income play significant roles affects one's voluntary purchase of flood insurance.
In addition, we have investigated into the relationships among contextual flooding risks, perceptions of flood-related risks, and long-term flood hazard adjustment policy support. We have found that the contextual flooding risks impact policy support through perceptions of flood-related risks. Perceived risks serve as a mediator bridging contextual risks and policy support to address such risks.
Source: http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/16/us/louisiana-flooding-by-the-numbers/index.html
Community Resilience and Perceptions
Many scholar have attempted to define and measure community resilience. Cutter et al. (2008) defined community resilience as “continual learning and taking responsibility for making better decisions to improve the capacity to handle hazards.” The definition given by Cutter et al. (2008) implies that cognitive components such as “learning” and “decisions” should be integrated into resilience. “Continual learning” requires one to constantly seek accurate information from the external sources. “Better decisions” need to incorporate and reflect the accurate information. Between seeking external information and reflecting information lies perception. Most existing community resilience indexes though are derived from objective data.
In one study (Shao et al. 2018), we contend that risk perceptions should be integrated into a comprehensive community resilience index. Before fully incorporating cognitive components into community resilience, there is a need to examine the relationship between each constituent of community resilience and community-level risk perceptions. In order to guide appropriate incorporation of risk perceptions into the construction of community resilience, it is of interest to reveal which dimensions of community resilience is/are more correlated with risk perception than others. We find that economic resilience and community capital, two of the six community resilience dimensions measured by Cutter et al. (2014) are positively related to perceptions of hurricane-related risks.
Reference:
Cutter, S. L., K. D. Ash, and C. T. Emrich. 2014. The geographies of community disaster resilience. Global Environmental Change, 29, 65-77.
Cutter, S. L., L. Barnes, M. Berry, C. Burton, E. Evans, E. Tate & J. Webb. 2008. A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters. Global Environmental Change 18: 598-606.
Shao, W., Gardezi, M., and Xian, S. 2018. Examining the effects of objective hurricane risks and community resilience on risk perceptions of hurricanes at the county level in the U.S. Gulf Coast: An innovative approach. Annals of the American Association of Geographers DOI: 10.1080/24694452.2018.1426436
Perceptions of Flood Hazards
In one study (Shao et al. 2019), two cities in Alabama were used as two contrasting geographic contexts within which understanding perceptions of flood hazards was situated. The major finding of this study is that people are attuned to their physical environments and take into consideration their personal observations when forming perceptions of natural hazards.
Shao, W., Keim, B., Xian, S., and O'Connor, R. 2019. Flood Hazards and Perceptions – A Comparative Study of Two Cities in Alabama. Journal of Hydrology, 569, 546-555.
Many scholar have attempted to define and measure community resilience. Cutter et al. (2008) defined community resilience as “continual learning and taking responsibility for making better decisions to improve the capacity to handle hazards.” The definition given by Cutter et al. (2008) implies that cognitive components such as “learning” and “decisions” should be integrated into resilience. “Continual learning” requires one to constantly seek accurate information from the external sources. “Better decisions” need to incorporate and reflect the accurate information. Between seeking external information and reflecting information lies perception. Most existing community resilience indexes though are derived from objective data.
In one study (Shao et al. 2018), we contend that risk perceptions should be integrated into a comprehensive community resilience index. Before fully incorporating cognitive components into community resilience, there is a need to examine the relationship between each constituent of community resilience and community-level risk perceptions. In order to guide appropriate incorporation of risk perceptions into the construction of community resilience, it is of interest to reveal which dimensions of community resilience is/are more correlated with risk perception than others. We find that economic resilience and community capital, two of the six community resilience dimensions measured by Cutter et al. (2014) are positively related to perceptions of hurricane-related risks.
Reference:
Cutter, S. L., K. D. Ash, and C. T. Emrich. 2014. The geographies of community disaster resilience. Global Environmental Change, 29, 65-77.
Cutter, S. L., L. Barnes, M. Berry, C. Burton, E. Evans, E. Tate & J. Webb. 2008. A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters. Global Environmental Change 18: 598-606.
Shao, W., Gardezi, M., and Xian, S. 2018. Examining the effects of objective hurricane risks and community resilience on risk perceptions of hurricanes at the county level in the U.S. Gulf Coast: An innovative approach. Annals of the American Association of Geographers DOI: 10.1080/24694452.2018.1426436
Perceptions of Flood Hazards
In one study (Shao et al. 2019), two cities in Alabama were used as two contrasting geographic contexts within which understanding perceptions of flood hazards was situated. The major finding of this study is that people are attuned to their physical environments and take into consideration their personal observations when forming perceptions of natural hazards.
Shao, W., Keim, B., Xian, S., and O'Connor, R. 2019. Flood Hazards and Perceptions – A Comparative Study of Two Cities in Alabama. Journal of Hydrology, 569, 546-555.