Blog Posts

My analysis article on the Conversation

10/13/2020

I just published one analysis article on the Conversation. Below please find the last section:

"Hope for shrinking the power of misinformation
The success of slowing the spread of COVID-19 hinges largely on people taking precautions, particularly wearing face masks and social distancing, until a safe and effective vaccine is widely available.

One study on attitudes toward climate change offers some hope. It found that a large number of Republicans and conservatives actually hold more unstable views about climate change over time. This instability may mean they could be more open to listening to the evidence and changing their minds.
If this is also the case with COVID-19, strategic science communications and community engagement activities may be able to make a difference and stop the rising death toll."

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Our new paper on perceptions of sea level rise in Climatic Change

10/10/2020

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Our new paper on perceptions of sea level rise has been published in Climatic Change (Impact factor: 4.743). Below please find the abstract:
"Sea level rise (SLR) in the 21st century poses fundamental risks to coastal residents. The U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast (Gulf Coast) is among the regions experiencing the most rapid relative SLR. Beyond its increasing exposure to SLR and related coastal flooding, the Gulf Coast is home to a large population and displays high social vulnerability. How the coastal population in this vulnerable region perceives the impending risks posed by SLR warrants further examination. Do coastal residents’ perceptions of SLR conform to the scientific projections? We adopt an integrative approach based on a 2019 survey merged with contextual data including percentage of population living within the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) and social vulnerability at the county level, both of which are extracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We find that public risk perceptions of sea level change are influenced by political predisposition, with Republicans being less likely than Democrats to expect SLR in the future. Moreover, SLR remains temporally distant issue among coastal residents. We then directly compare public expectations and scientific estimations of SLR in five states of the U.S. Gulf Coast region and find that coastal residents in states that have experienced faster SLR in the past are more optimistic about future SLR by underestimating its magnitude compared to those experiencing slower SLR. Moreover, we find that people likely conflate the severity with likelihood of SLR risk. The contextual force represented by percentage of population living within the SFHA designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) can significantly influence individuals’ estimations of future SLR, with higher percentages leading to higher estimates. We suspect that the SFHA has become a powerful risk communication tool that influences coastal residents’ judgments about future risk.

Figure 3. Comparison of public estimation with scientific estimation of SLR at five locations in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, Florida Panhandle, and Florida Peninsula along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Percentages assigned at lower level and upper level in each figures represent percentages of respondents who estimated future SLR to be lower than the 5th and higher than the 95th scientific estimates, respectively (Source: Shao et al. in press).

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Our new paper on polycentric governance in flood management

10/4/2020

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our new paper has been published in Climate Policy (impact factor: 5.085). Below please find the abstract:

"Floods increasingly threaten disadvantaged communities around the globe. When limited financial resources are available, nature-based and community-based incremental adaptation that codifies existing actions and behaviors can help protect people and assets through risk reduction management. These adaptation measures mainly rely on non-financial capital that can be appropriate alternatives when financial resources are limited, especially within the context of disadvantaged communities. There are, however, challenges in implementing such adaptation measures, including differential power relationships that might lead to misallocation of benefits. We propose a polycentric governance framework that can enhance stakeholder engagement and mobilize various forms of non-financial capital to trigger a web of incremental adaptation measures through four support mechanisms: technological investment, institutional enhancement, knowledge production, and environmental protection. We further discuss how various facilitating factors, including i) communication and transportation infrastructure, ii) flexible laws/regulations, iii) risk communication, and iv) environmental restoration, can increase the likelihood of success in application of the framework. A successful application of the proposed framework also necessitates development of a research agenda around suitable non-financial metrics for monitoring and evaluating the performance of the proposed strategies. In addition, learning from new developments in general societal protection and resilience in communities with relatively large financial capital and experiences of practicing polycentric governance in disadvantaged communities may facilitate the implementation of polycentric governance-based disaster risk reduction globally."

Figure 1: The proposed polycentric governance framework for incremental adaptation for disaster risk reduction. (Source: Moftakhari et al. in press)

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A Ph.D opportunity

10/1/2020

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My research group Environmental Decision Making at the Department of Geography at the University of Alabama is accepting applications for a Ph.D student with research assistantship, in social dimension of hazards in general and flood hazards in particular. The assistantship provides a stipend plus tuition remission.

The successful applicant will work with me and two research groups at the Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering and will be involved in projects focused on human dimension of flood hazards.

Qualified candidates should have a Master’s degree in Geography, Environmental Studies/Sciences, Planning or a related discipline. Candidates should have a strong interest in the intersection of social and physical dimensions of hazards and be eager to work in an interdisciplinary environment. Experience in quantitative data analysis, survey design, geographic information systems (GIS) are desired. Strong oral and written communication skills are required.

For more information about this assistantship, please contact me at wshao1@ua.edu well in advance of February 15, 2021 (the application deadline). Please include a copy of your CV, unofficial academic transcripts, and a brief personal statement that highlights skills relevant to the position.

For more information about the department, please see https://geography.ua.edu/.

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Our new paper in Science of the Total Environment

7/19/2020

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Our new paper has been published in Science of the Total Environment (Impact Factor: 7.963). Below please find the abstract:

"Climate extremes will be intensified and become more frequent. One of the regions where this is the case is the U.S. Gulf coast region. This region is susceptible to the impacts of climate extremes. This region has recently experienced large amounts of economic damages caused by high-impact hurricanes and floods. Meanwhile, drought can also pose serious risks once it occurs. By using a 2019 U.S. Gulf Coast survey combined with Standard Precipitation Index, we closely examined retrospective and prospective evaluations of drought and flood among coastal residents. Drawing upon literature on human-environment system, we were interested in how the objective conditions of past drought and flood influenced individual’s perceptions of these hazards and how their retrospective evaluations were correlated with their prospective evaluations of future trends of these hazards. Coastal residents’ retrospective evaluations of past drought and flood were found to be influenced by historic objective conditions. Higher drought frequencies were found to increase the probability of perceiving increasing trend of drought number in the past. Higher flood frequencies were found to decrease the probability of perceiving increasing trend of flood number in the past. Higher intensities of drought and flood were found to increase the probabilities of perceiving increasing trends of drought duration and flood amount in the past. Coastal residents’ prospective evaluations of future drought and flood were found to be influenced by retrospective evaluations of these hazards, suggesting the temporal continuity in human judgement. Moreover, those who relied on a longer time span in reference to the future were found to be more likely to perceive increasing trends of drought and flood. We ended this paper by proposing a theoretical framework to guide future studies and discussing policy implications."

Core Figure - Figure 4. Retrospective evaluations of drought and flood risk and association with objective conditions (a) and their correlations with prospective evaluations of drought and flood risk (b). In (a), filled circles, circles with cross, empty circles depict the frequency, duration, intensity, respectively, of drought (red) and flood (blue). In (b) filled (empty) circles depict retrospective evaluations on past drought and flood numbers (past drought duration and past flood amount). The bars represent confidence intervals of all the estimated coefficients (Shao and Kam, 2020)

Graphic Abstract

Figure 2. Number of states under regional drought events (red) and regional pluvial flood events (blue) (Shao and Kam, 2020)

Figure 3: Monthly time series of the relative search activity indices on drought (a) and flood (b) between 2004 through 2018. Dark (light) lines depict the averages (maximum and minimum values) of the relative search activity indices over the five Gulf costal states (Shao and Kam, 2020)

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Our new paper on risk perceptions of COVID-19

7/17/2020

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In a new paper that has been published in Social Science & Medicine (Impact Factor: 4.634), we studied the factors on risk perceptions of COVID-19. Below please find the abstract:

Rationale
COVID-19 poses an unprecedented level of risks to the public health and well-being in the United States. This pandemic has led to cascading effects such as rapidly rising unemployment rate, deteriorating mental health, and disturbed stock market among others. This disease presents an opportunity for social scientists to conduct a timely study of American public perceptions of risks associated with COVID-19.

Objective
Due to a great amount of uncertainties surrounding this disease, the public has to rely upon authorities for information and guidance. In this study, we aim to answer this overarching question: how does confidence in political leaders shape American public risk perceptions of COVID-19?

Method
Based on a nationally representative data conducted in March 2020, we use latent mean comparison analysis and Structural Equation Modelling to make several findings.

Results
First, confidence in political leaders can reduce risk perceptions of this disease. Second, conservatives show lower risk perceptions than liberals and moderates. Third, confidence in political leaders has mediating effects among conservatives and white Americans, where conservatives and white Americans who have more confidence in political leaders show lower risk perceptions of COVID-19 than other conservatives and white Americans who have less confidence.

Conclusion
These results highlight the enormous challenges facing policy makers who intend to design and implement national public health policies in this polarized environment.

Figure 1. Structural Equation Modelling Diagram (Shao and Hao, 2020 b)

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A new paper in Scientific Reports

12/29/2019

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In a new paper, we assessed the socio-economic vulnerability to flash floods across the contiguous U.S. This paper has been published in Scientific Reports (a Nature journal). For more information, below please find the abstract:

"Flash flood is among the most catastrophic natural hazards which causes disruption in the environment and societies. Flash flood is mainly initiated by intense rainfall, and due to its rapid onset (within six hours of rainfall), taking action for effective response is challenging. Building resilience to flash floods require understanding of the socio-economic characteristics of the societies and their vulnerability to these extreme events. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of socio-economic vulnerability to flash floods and investigates the main characteristics of flash flood hazard, i.e. frequency, duration, severity, and magnitude. A socio-economic vulnerability index is developed at the county level across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). For this purpose, an ensemble of social and economic variables from the US Census and the Bureau of Economic Analysis were analyzed. Then, the coincidence of socio-economic vulnerability and flash flood hazard were investigated to identify the critical and non-critical regions. Results show that the southwest U.S. experienced severe flash flooding with high magnitude, whereas the Northern Great Plains experience lower severity and frequency. Critical counties (high-vulnerable-hotspot) are mostly located in the southern and southwestern parts of the U.S. The majority of counties in the Northern Great Plains indicate a non-critical status."

Figure 7. Flash flood hazard characteristics converted from gauge station to the county-scale (Khajehei et al. 2020)

Figure 8. Maps of the counties where flashflood extremes coincide with socio-economic vulnerability extremes (Khajehei et al. 2020)

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Job Ad: Climate Modeling/Climate and Human Health-Associate Professor/Professor

12/3/2019

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The University of Alabama, Department of Geography seeks a new colleague with research expertise in Climate Modeling or Climate and Human Health, starting August 16, 2020, at the rank of Associate Professor or Professor, with tenure.

This search is part of an effort to elevate the University of Alabama’s visibility and impact in climate research including the analysis and interpretation of climate data, particularly concerning hydroclimatology, climate-health relationships, environmental health sciences, environmental epidemiology, climate-related food security, or climate modeling more broadly. The ideal candidate’s professional accomplishments include sustained success securing external funding, a nationally/internationally recognized profile, and a solid track record of successful graduate student recruitment and mentoring.

We seek a scholar who can take advantage of the collaborative opportunities on the Tuscaloosa campus, including those at the newly–formed Alabama Water Institute (http://ovpred.ua.edu/alabama-water-institute/) and Alabama Life Research Institute (http://ovpred.ua.edu/alabama-life-research-institute/), and the NOAA National Water Center (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/nwc/). Candidates with research interests that also complement one or more of the department’s broader research foci, including water resources, human-environment systems, environmental management and change, or geographic information analysis (see http://geography.ua.edu/), are particularly encouraged to apply. A Ph.D. in Geography or closely related discipline is required. It is expected that the successful candidate will transfer an active research program to the University of Alabama.

For more information, please visit the job site.

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Our new paper has been published in Climatic Change

10/27/2019

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Our new paper, entitled "Approval of Political Leaders can Slant Evaluation of Political Issues: Evidence from Public Concern for Climate Change in the U.S." has been published in Climatic Change. You can find the abstract below:

"Climate change has become one of the signature issues that divides the American public. Numerous empirical studies of the past two decades have identified the politicization of this issue. In recent years, the concurrence of rising extreme weather events and uptick in public concern for climate change has led to common speculation that the former may drive up the latter. Using a nationally representative survey dataset combined with climate extremes data including extreme heat, extreme precipitation, and mild drought or worse, we use Structural Equation Modeling to examine how politics and climate extremes altogether shape American public concern for climate change. In addition to confirming politicization of climate change, we find that approval of President Trump not only promotes skeptical climate change perceptions but also serve as an intervening amplifier of these perceptions for Republicans and conservatives. Thus, one’s concern for climate change is partially explained by their political identification and partially explained by their levels of approval of Trump. With the 2020 presidential election underway, it remains to be seen how attitudes toward presidential candidates can affect climate change perceptions and support for climate policies. The widely speculated role of climate extremes however fails to show significant effects in views towards climate change. We provide explanations for this insignificant finding. The study ends by calling for more studies to further investigate into the drivers of formation of opinions towards climate change."

The following figure is from the accepted manuscript (Shao and Hao 2020 a)

Figure 1. Structural Equation Modeling Diagram (Shao and Hao 2020 a)

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Our new paper is published in the International Journal of Environmental Health Research

9/16/2019

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Our new paper has been published in the International Journal of Environmental Health Research. In this paper, we examined potential factors that could affect community-level mental health across the United States. Here is the the summary:

"Mental health studies have underscored the hazardous conditions of each phase of life, from youth and pre-adulthood through adulthood in the United States. This situation calls for increased public awareness of the mental health issue and better understanding of the significant factors associated with mental health hazard. The main objective of this spatial epidemiological research is to gain greater insights into the geographic dimension displayed by the different duration of mentally unhealthy days (MUDs) across U.S. counties. Using Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data in 2014, we examine main factors of mental health hazard including health behaviour, clinical care, socioeconomic and physical environment, demographic, community resilience, and extreme climatic conditions. In this study, we take complex design factors such as clustering, stratification and sample weight in the BRFSS data into account by using Complex Samples General Linear Model (CSGLM). Then, spatial regression models, spatial lag and error models, are applied to examine spatial dependencies and heteroscedasticity. Econometric analysis underscores that all categories of air pollution, community resilience, and sunlight variables tested are significant push factors of mentally unhealthy days (MUDs) duration. Results of the geographic analyses indicate that counties with lower air pollution (PM2.5), higher community resilience (social, economic, infrastructure, and institutional resilience), and higher sunlight exposure had significantly lower average number of MUDs reported in the past 30 days. These findings suggest that policy makers should take air pollution, community resilience, and sunlight exposure into account when designing environmental and health policies and allocating resources to more effectively manage mental health problems."

The following figure is from this paper (Ha and Shao 2019)

Figure 1. County-level annual average number of age-adjusted mentally unhealthy days (MUDs) reported in the past 30 days, 2014 (source: Ha and Shao, forthcoming)

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My analysis article on the Conversation

Our new paper on perceptions of sea level rise in Climatic Change

Our new paper on polycentric governance in flood management

A Ph.D opportunity

Our new paper in Science of the Total Environment

Our new paper on risk perceptions of COVID-19

A new paper in Scientific Reports

Job Ad: Climate Modeling/Climate and Human Health-Associate Professor/Professor

Our new paper has been published in Climatic Change

Our new paper is published in the International Journal of Environmental Health Research

Wanyun Shao, Ph.D

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