8/30/2017 5 Comments My piece on the Conversation: After Harvey, Texans will think differently about hurricanes I just published an analysis piece on Hurricane Harvey and its policy implications on the Conversation.
Here is the last paragraph, "Given the devastation Harvey has incurred among coastal residents in Texas, we expect that these communities will be shell-shocked in the foreseeable future. This heightened risk perception will translate into adaption and mitigation actions. If another big storm hits Texas in the near future, residents will be more ready. New Orleans, where local officials issued detailed instructions last week about preparing for Harvey, is a perfect example for Houston to follow."
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The wind has diminished. Now the great threat of flooding is looming over Houston as unprecedented heavy rainfall is pounding this area. In order to cope with flooding, there are some precautionary measures for coastal residents to adopt. I am re-posting two of my old blog entries here:
"One effective precautionary measure would be to purchase flood insurance. In reality, though, only a portion of these coastal residents who live in the imminent threats of floods have flood insurance. Naturally, we start to scratch our heads and wonder, "what drives people to buy flood insurance?" Driven by this question, my co-authors and I analyzed the Gulf Coast Climate Change survey data merged with contextual data, and made several important findings on individual voluntary flood insurance purchase behaviors. The results are published in the journal: Water Research These findings include: 1. Flood risks in FEMA flood map affect the voluntary purchase of flood insurance. 2. Voluntary behavior is influenced by perceptions of flood-related risks. 3. Intensity of the local flood events in the past affects the voluntary behavior. 4. Social factors especially income significantly affect the voluntary behavior. " "Purchasing flood insurance may relieve financial burden for home owners after a big storm hits. With the deeply troubled National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), it is sensible for home owners to think of alternatives. By utilizing original survey data merged with contextual data on flood risks, my coauthors and I have investigated the determinants of coastal residents' support for two adaptation policies: incentives for relocation and funding for educational programs for emergency planning and evacuation. The major finding of this study is that perceptions of flood-related risks plays an essential role mediating the contextual flood risks and adaptation policies. The contextual risks, indicated by distance from the coast, maximum wind speed and peak height of storm surge from the last hurricane landfall, and percentage of high-risk flood zone per county, do not directly exert influence on policy support. Instead, these contextual risks impact one's adaptation policy support through risk perceptions. This finding implies the significance of risk perceptions and highlights the need for effective and accurate risk communication. This study has also been published on Water Research. " The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is in deep debt, owing billions of dollars to the U.S. Treasury after monstrous Hurricane Katrina (2005), Super Storm Sandy (2012), and Louisiana Epic Flood (2016). This program was first passed by the Congress in 1968, with the initial intention to entice coastal property owners to join this program by providing subsidies. In doing so, the premiums paid by property owners are distorted and do not fully reflect the real flooding risks they have to deal with. The misleading price signal unintentionally encourages property developments in risky areas, such as the Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA). In anticipation of rising seas and stronger coastal storms, rebuilding efforts seem to be on the path to further drive NFIP off the cliff.
Purchasing flood insurance may relieve financial burden for home owners after a big storm hits. With the deeply troubled NFIP, it is sensible for home owners to think of alternatives. By utilizing original survey data merged with contextual data on flood risks, my coauthors and I have investigated the determinants of coastal residents' support for two adaptation policies: incentives for relocation and funding for educational programs for emergency planning and evacuation (Shao, et al., 2017). The major finding of this study is that perceptions of flood-related risks plays an essential role mediating the contextual flood risks and adaptation policies. The contextual risks, indicated by distance from the coast, maximum wind speed and peak height of storm surge from the last hurricane landfall, and percentage of high-risk flood zone per county, do not directly exert influence on policy support. Instead, these contextual risks impact one's adaptation policy support through risk perceptions. This finding implies the significance of risk perceptions and highlights the need for effective and accurate risk communication. Reference: Shao, W., Xian, S., Lin, N., and Small, M. J. 2017 "A sequential model to link contextual risk, perception and public support for flood adaptation policy." Water Research. doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2017.05.072 Flooding poses serious threats to communities. The economic damages incurred by floods have grown immensely over the past several decades in the U.S., especially in the coastal region due to a combination of intense coastal development and climate change impacts. The recent epic flood in Louisiana serves as a vivid reminder that a flood can turn out to be a monster destroying everything on its path.
Being faced with these serious challenges, one effective precautionary measure for coastal residents would be to purchase flood insurance. In reality, though, only a portion of these coastal residents who live in the imminent threats of floods have flood insurance. Naturally, we start to scratch our heads and wonder, "what drives people to buy flood insurance?" Driven by this question, my co-authors and I analyzed the Gulf Coast Climate Change survey data merged with contextual data, and made several important findings on individual voluntary flood insurance purchase behaviors. The results are published in the journal: Water Research These findings include: 1. Flood risks in FEMA flood map affect the voluntary purchase of flood insurance. 2. Voluntary behavior is influenced by perceptions of flood-related risks. 3. Intensity of the local flood events in the past affects the voluntary behavior. 4. Social factors especially income significantly affect the voluntary behavior. 8/21/2016 0 Comments Louisiana's Epic Flood The southern Louisiana was absolutely devastated by an epic flood last week. Tens of thousands of people were displaced due to this historically unprecedented flooding event. 13 people died of this event, 40,000 homes were damaged, and 20 parishes were declared Federal Disaster Area. For many residents in these communities, this flood was even more destructive than Hurricane Katrina. Here, I post some pictures of the neighborhood I used to live in. The street was full of trash in the aftermath. Inside the house after the water receded After the worst natural hazard since Super Storm Sandy, many coastal communities are facing a long recovery. When interviewed by NPR's On Point, my former doctoral advisor Dr. Barry Keim, Louisiana State Climatologist, was asked if this epic flood was related to climate change, Dr. Keim pointed out that it was difficult to determine an absolute link between climate change and a single event. His response highlights the key to understanding climate change. By definition, climate change refers to “a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer," according IPCC. Lay persons are more likely to be influenced by isolated extreme weather events when making judgments about climate change. More frequent extreme weather events, though, collectively form a pattern that can be attributed to climate change.
The economic damage from flooding in the coastal areas has dramatically increased over the past several decades. One effective way to mitigate excessive economic losses from flooding is to purchase flood insurance. In reality, only a minority of coastal residents however have taken this preventive measure. In order to understand the driving force behind individuals' decision to voluntarily purchase flood insurance, my coauthors and I examine how external influences and perceptions of flood-related risks together with socio-demographic factors affect this voluntary behavior in the U.S. Gulf Coast by using survey data merged with contextual data. This paper has been published on Water Research. Our findings indicate that estimated flood risks conveyed through FEMA's flood maps, intensities and consequences of past storms and flooding events, as well as perceived flood-related risks significantly affect individuals’ voluntary flood insurance purchase behaviors. The finding about FEMA's flood maps has significant policy implication that FEMA’s flood maps have been effective in conveying local flood risks to coastal residents, and correspondingly influencing their decisions to voluntarily seek flood insurance. Flood maps therefore should be updated frequently to reflect timely and accurate flood risks. |
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