Markov Chain has been applied in a wide range of fields. It can be explained simply and visually here.
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Maps are powerful. They are tools. They help people navigate. They depict patterns of certain phenomena. They shape how we perceive this world. Moreover, they are pieces of arts. National Geographic put together a list of the best maps of 2016.
Carbon tax and cap-and-trade are two common mitigation policies to curb carbon emission. Either has its own advantages and disadvantages. Both are means to achieve the same end: reducing carbon emission by pricing carbon. WRI put together a report comparing pros and cons of either policy.
The U.S. has been overwhelmingly hot in 2016. Climate Central pulled daily temperature data from over 1730 weather stations across the lower 48 states and visualized it in the map shown below. A vast majority of locations have witnessed hotter than normal average temperatures and 10% of them actually have the hottest records.  Credit: Climate Central
Hans Rosling condensed 200 countries' 200 years into 4 minutes. His popular YouTube video is a perfect example of the power of data visualization.
A wonderful data visualizer and science communicator, who is popular with the public, may not enjoy the same stature among his peers. “It’s the dilemma of the public intellectual," explained by a colleague, "describing academics who bridge several disciplines rather than excel at one." It is a lot of fun to read Michael Lewis's new book on the collaboration and friendship between Danniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.
Kahneman is portrayed as an "outsider." Before he met Tversky, according to former colleagues and students, "he was very insecure," "he was moody in the extreme," and "he was like Woody Allen, without the humor." His deep-rooted skepticism even applies to himself. After completing the draft of his now best-seller "Thinking, fast and slow," he hired someone to read his work to convince him not to publish it. Tversky, on the other hand, was an "insider." One of his long-time friends described, "people who knew Amos could talk of nothing else. There was nothing we liked to do more than to get together and talk about him, over and over and over." He was the center of attention in every party. People loved to be around him and listen to what he had to say. Yet, these two strikingly different characters and similarly remarkable minds met and formed a friendship that has fundamentally transformed how we view our own minds. After Tversky gave his talk on the "conservative Bayesians" in Kahneman's seminar, Kahneman immediately casted doubt on this notion that we are naturally Bayesian thinkers who constantly update our own beliefs with new pieces of information coming in. Kahneman's reaction to Tversky's talk, "Brilliant talk, but I don't believe a word of it," really unsettled this otherwise confident, smartest person in any room. The two then set off on an intellectual journey to study "natural stupidity." Now, we know our minds are subject to many biases and heuristics, or mental shortcuts. We hate losses more than we like gains. Bayesian statistics has gained some popularity among applied researchers. Andrew Gelman explained the basics here. One fascinating episode in Bayesian's history: "Alan Turing used Bayesian probability methods to crack the Enigma code in the second world war."
Confronted with the daunting challenge posed by climate change, the political climate seems to be on the path to drive the real climate even weirder. Over 800 earth scientists and energy experts have signed an open letter to the president-elect urging him to "take immediate and sustained action against human-caused climate change." Specifically, they suggested the president-elect take six steps:
"1. Make America a clean energy leader. 2. Reduce carbon pollution and America’s dependence on fossil fuels. 3. Enhance America’s climate preparedness and resilience. 4. Publicly acknowledge that climate change is a real, human-caused, and urgent threat. 5.Protect scientific integrity in policymaking. 6. Uphold America's commitment to the Paris Climate Agreement." While the possibility for the U.S. to step back from the Paris accord is real, China may step up to become the international climate leader. According to an economist at the USC, China has three primary incentives to do so, including "reducing coal's cruel impacts, pursuing green and profitable export markets, and investing in soft power."
Now that the national effort to curb carbon emission may stall, all eyes are on cities. Cities are both major contributors to CO2 emission and in the front line to face the dire consequences of climate change since "90 percent of urban areas in the world are coastal." Coastal areas are under imminent threats of sea level rise, flooding, storm surge, etc. This actually creates a situation to avoid the tragedy of the commons. Big cities around the world like the C40 group have already started making serious attempts to cut carbon emission, which gives us hope that the daunting global problem can find a local solution.
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湖边的风
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